Pa. COVID Update: The death rate is increasing slightly. The cases, the hospitalizations continue the descent.

Pennsylvania COVID-19[feminine] the number of cases, which took a noticeable plunge according to last week’s figures from the Pennsylvania Department of Healthcontinued its downward trend with another, albeit smaller, drop this week.

The state recorded an increase of 22,564 total cases of COVID-19 over the past week, down a few thousand from the 24,862 cases reported by the state the previous week. In seven days, this increase amounts to approximately 3,223 cases per day, compared to 3,552 previously.

With a few weeks of evidence, it seems clear that the state’s case rate is trending down at an uneven rate, but falling nonetheless. The state’s seven-day average during this spring surge hit 4,238 two weeks ago before dropping significantly. If the decline in cases mirrors this week’s decline rather than last week’s, the decline could be slower.

If so, Pennsylvania will likely hit a notable mark sooner rather than later. With its total case count currently at 2,954,750, the state is only 45,250 total cases away from crossing the 3 million mark, a figure that only five states – California, Florida, Texas, New York and Illinois – reached, according to data from The New York Times.

Pennsylvania will almost certainly hit 3 million cases over the next month, and that could be weeks away.

The Lehigh Valley is not far off reaching 3 million cases, but its case rates have increased during the outbreak. Fortunately, both are also on the decline. Lehigh County is averaging 88 cases a day over the past week after an average of 131 a few weeks ago. Northampton CountyThe average of is down to 74 after climbing to 134 during this surge.

In total, the county has 179,231 accumulated cases since March 2020.

Pennsylvania’s death rate jumped quite noticeably this week. The state reported 159 new deaths this week, bringing the total death toll to 45,413. The seven-day average is 23 per day, a jump from the 15 average last week.

It’s not entirely shocking. Pennsylvania’s case rate rose sharply from early to mid-May. This could be due to the trend of the state’s death rate rising within weeks of an increase in the case rate. But given that the peak in the case rate during this outbreak didn’t last very long, it’s likely the death rate won’t either. Another milestone next week would not be unprecedented, and history would indicate that the death rate would start to drop after that.

Pennsylvania hospitals are also starting to see COVID-19 patient levels drop as well. Currently, 1,213 patients are hospitalized with the virus, more than 100 less than last week. The intensive care and ventilator totals are also down, to 133 and 51, respectively.

Our journalism needs your support. Please subscribe today to lehighvalleylive.com.

Connor Lagore can be reached at [email protected].